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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."